Post by sballalumni2 on Apr 28, 2015 12:30:30 GMT -6
I compiled this data for a college softball message board that has Georgia State listed as one of the first five teams out of NCAA at large bids and Troy listed in the next five teams out. I know that no one on this site really cares about softball, but I thought the data was interesting so I copied and pasted. Interesting to note that GA State is 20 RPI slots higher than Troy and did sweep us. I feel like Troy's top ten RPI wins makes for a better resume.
TEAM Georgia State: Record: 32-20, Home 16-8, Away 7-11, Neutral 9-1 Best 5 Wins: RPI #42,58,58,58,68 Worst 5 Losses: RPI #232,177,125,80,80 Top 10 Played: RPI #3,6,9,10,10,10 (0-6 record) Currently 6th in Conference Record versus common opponents 9-9 Average RPI of Opponents #103.6
TEAM Troy: Record: 31-20, Home 16-5, Away 11-13, Neutral 4-2 Best 5 Wins: RPI #9,10,48,66,68 Worst 5 Losses: RPI #129,106,79,75,75 Top 10 Played: RPI #3,3,6,9,10,10,10 (2-5 record) Currently 3rd in Conference Record versus common opponents 11-7 Average RPI of Opponents #113.27
The formula for RPI has always confused me. Normally head to head doesn't weigh that heavily. Maybe because we were swept it makes that big of a difference? If we can win two from SoBama I think our RPI will take a good bump up. It might move a little with just one win. On the other hand Georgia St is playing Georgia Southern and their RPI is in the mid 120's or so and that should cause their RPI to take a hit. What do you think our RPI has to be to get an at large bid? Assuming either SoBama or ULL win the tourney
Last Edit: Apr 28, 2015 13:18:20 GMT -6 by Hemi Man
Post by sballalumni2 on Apr 28, 2015 14:01:10 GMT -6
Last year Hofstra was one of the last teams in at mid 30's, but a lot of it depends on upsets at conference tournaments. They usually say that anyone under 45 has a chance and sometimes up to 50. Troy had three games with Alabama State, and really for RPI it is better to lose to an SEC team than schedule Alabama State (#274). At the end of the season, I think they give bonus points for Top 75 Non-conference wins and penalties for non-conference losses above 75. There are 32 automatic bids and 32 at-large bids, but there will only be 21 at large bids after the SEC gobbles up 10 of the at-large bids and possibly 11 of them.
I think Troy would need a sweep of USA, at least a couple of wins at SBC tourney, and a little bit of luck. The good news is that almost all of the regional sites will be within driving distance and sometimes the NCAA will take travel into consideration. I guess Georgia State has the same situation though and they did sweep Troy. I think USF was listed as a bubble team too and their RPI is similar.
Post by sballalumni2 on May 4, 2015 14:00:18 GMT -6
After losing 2 of 3 to USA, Troy is pretty much out of contention for an at-large bid. The RPI has them 60th now and Georgia State is at 43rd. Most people think that neither team will get in. Our only shot is to win the conference tournament, which could very well happen.