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Post by buzzlightyear on May 11, 2020 7:40:39 GMT -6
Guys there is a really good chance that we will have football this fall. There are some IgG positive folks without IgM (which means its an older infection) in Jackson County Florida. These are the reliable tests too. I am attaching some numbers I was working to actually give risks per age group using New York, Dougherty County Georgia, and Dade County Florida as three hot to hotter spots. If anyone is interested they can open those and read them. Long and short is that with a reasonable testing for antibodies and Covid beginning June 15th (of reliable tests) then a protocol could be established for when players were able to participate. We will have signs at games that say something like this: If you have tested Positive for antibodies and are negative for active disease you may openly attend the game. If you are currently positive for Covid we ask that you do not attend. The CDC has determined that Covid-19 may in fact lead to serious illness or death. If you have any questions please contact your health care provider for their assessment of your individual risk. Then of course that would only go if there is liability protection granted to universities following a protocol and warning.. Good news we live in the South likely will pass state legislators in our states. corona hotspot calc.docx (23.53 KB) Update info for Corona hotspots.docx (12.62 KB)
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Post by buzzlightyear on May 11, 2020 8:00:32 GMT -6
Bottom line. Watch Dougherty County. The numbers are coming way down and they are not isolating that well. The virus is seems to be attenuating despite our numbers going up. I am not a betting man but it seems to me that not only college football. GO TROY but overall things would begin to approximate normal by September 1.
Boo China yea Troy!!
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Post by cornhole on May 11, 2020 16:14:44 GMT -6
WuhaniChina Virus sux.
There, I said it. No apologies to Confuscious or his Institute. And thanks for the update buzz, surely it will morph and change regularly.
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Post by buzzlightyear on May 26, 2020 8:13:49 GMT -6
There are a million (if not more) interpretations of data. The bottom line is that this virus is attenuating (getting either less infectious or virulent or both). You are hit with "the sky is falling -The sky is falling" with rising numbers. Where very little existed the numbers will rise. However, the hospitalization and death rates per 100k are going down. Also with more testing the cases are going up. ( I won't go into the reasons for my aggravation of how states use this as a point of policy making when it is not standardized and hospitalization and death rates are so much more important.) Anyhoo, the bottom line is we are going to have football. This past Memorial day weekend if not accompanied by significant spikes in not just cases but the rates of death and hospitalizations will pretty much seal the deal. Again, this is a bad virus for our long term care facilities but the numbers look better and better not just for football but for our entire country. Additionally, we do want to continue working on vaccine just in case there is a return of the virus in a the cooler months. For those who wish to look at some numbers per 100k I am placing a couple of charts that show why I am so confident about our having football. Yes I am a little obsessed with numbers but we are actually using this information locally. UPDATE thru May 24th corona.docx (14.26 KB) Macrosomic view of the three hotspots.docx (12.87 KB)
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Post by buzzlightyear on Jun 4, 2020 9:18:02 GMT -6
Just out of curiosity I am wondering if others feel as I do. NO we are not going political in this question. There was Corona and now other things going on in the US. Then there is Athlon with their first publication and us coming off a less than stellar year.
Is it just me or is the enthusiasm just a tad less than normal because SO much is up in the air.
It is funny that while I consider so many things more important than football, we sure could use sports again. Football in particular.
So...………..I actually have a question...……..don't know how to do a poll (that is not the question)
Question number 1: chances of us being 6-1 going into the Ark St game?
Question number 2: chances of us being 7-0 going into ARKY State game?
Question number 3: Predict actual record going into ARKY Statey Game:
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Post by TroyFootball05 on Jun 4, 2020 12:00:46 GMT -6
Just out of curiosity I am wondering if others feel as I do. NO we are not going political in this question. There was Corona and now other things going on in the US. Then there is Athlon with their first publication and us coming off a less than stellar year. Is it just me or is the enthusiasm just a tad less than normal because SO much is up in the air. It is funny that while I consider so many things more important than football, we sure could use sports again. Football in particular. So...………..I actually have a question...……..don't know how to do a poll (that is not the question) Question number 1: chances of us being 6-1 going into the Ark St game? Question number 2: chances of us being 7-0 going into ARKY State game? Question number 3: Predict actual record going into ARKY Statey Game: I say 5-2 going into Arkansas State. Loss to NCSTATE (though this game is very winnable), and a loss to one of USA, GSU, or ULM. 7-0 is possible though. Gut instinct says we will play a full schedule on time in the fall.
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Post by buzzlightyear on Jun 4, 2020 14:42:36 GMT -6
If we were asking for actual money behind these predictions I think there would be heavy money on 5-2. Sure agree that 6-1 or 7-0 is possible. The schedule is just set that way to have that positive a guess (even after last year). I think with a break or two there is a 20% chance of being 7-0 and about a 35%-40% chance of being 6-1. I know, I know, I know the last 5 games are a WHOLE different thing! But u know what? Confidence and success breeds good things. You just never know. I know with all of our doubts etc this is actually possible to have a decent year!!
Go Troy!!
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Post by dedicatedtrojan84 on Jun 5, 2020 8:33:42 GMT -6
Is it just me or is the enthusiasm just a tad less than normal because SO much is up in the air. The enthusiasm is lacking for sure. I imagine ticket sales are down too because of the current state of affairs and also IMO very lackluster TWF promoting this year.
As far as the record who knows. Its a coin flip and I hope the staff turns things around for the better. The talent is there.
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Post by trojantke on Jun 5, 2020 9:26:44 GMT -6
Question number 1: I think we'll be heavily favored in at least 5 of those games.
Question number 2: My prediction is 7-0 at this point, but I'm one of the last loyalists rearranging deck chairs aboard the #ChipShip
Question number 3: 7-0. And although those last 5 are brutal, a team that has locked up a bowl and is feeling good can surprise a lot of superior teams.
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Post by TroyFootball05 on Jun 5, 2020 10:21:34 GMT -6
Question number 1: I think we'll be heavily favored in at least 5 of those games. Question number 2: My prediction is 7-0 at this point, but I'm one of the last loyalists rearranging deck chairs aboard the #ChipShip Question number 3: 7-0. And although those last 5 are brutal, a team that has locked up a bowl and is feeling good can surprise a lot of superior teams. I wouldn't say I'm a loyalist, but I think we'll be better this year. (The HC we don’t speak of) and Co. will have a chance to prove year one was just growing pains. I'm optimistic with who we have returning and the new strength coach being a big piece of the puzzle.
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Post by trojantke on Jun 5, 2020 10:28:04 GMT -6
Exactly! Last year was such a series of unfortunate events I expected to see Lemony Snicket sitting beside me at the Vet. This year, I believe, will be a huge improvement just as the second year under NHB saw an improvement.
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Post by buzzlightyear on Aug 5, 2020 15:26:06 GMT -6
Bottom line. Watch Dougherty County. The numbers are coming way down and they are not isolating that well. The virus is seems to be attenuating despite our numbers going up. I am not a betting man but it seems to me that not only college football. GO TROY but overall things would begin to approximate normal by September 1. Boo China yea Troy!! I still have hopes that we are going to follow this trend that things will be better and early September most of the surge in the Southeast will be over. Still firmly believe that EVERY place will have to have their version of the surge and burn thru. Take care and hope to see a good many of you soon.
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Post by buzzlightyear on Sept 6, 2020 17:29:35 GMT -6
Guys there is a really good chance that we will have football this fall. There are some IgG positive folks without IgM (which means its an older infection) in Jackson County Florida. These are the reliable tests too. I am attaching some numbers I was working to actually give risks per age group using New York, Dougherty County Georgia, and Dade County Florida as three hot to hotter spots. If anyone is interested they can open those and read them. Long and short is that with a reasonable testing for antibodies and Covid beginning June 15th (of reliable tests) then a protocol could be established for when players were able to participate. We will have signs at games that say something like this: If you have tested Positive for antibodies and are negative for active disease you may openly attend the game. If you are currently positive for Covid we ask that you do not attend. The CDC has determined that Covid-19 may in fact lead to serious illness or death. If you have any questions please contact your health care provider for their assessment of your individual risk. Then of course that would only go if there is liability protection granted to universities following a protocol and warning.. Good news we live in the South likely will pass state legislators in our states. View AttachmentView Attachment. This is a post From early May. I am still obsessed with the numbers and our Dougherty County after the first surge resurged slightly but predominantly in their Caucasian population in July as the rest of the county was re-fed from Florida etc. Over the past week they are down to less than 5 cases per hundred thousand a day. That’s good. New York is even less than that. Over the next month as school settled in we will see what happens but I am encouraged that by the end of the season we may be able to see larger amounts of people allowed into stadiums. It was good to see college football take off and I am happy that my Sept 1 prediction was pretty accurate. There are still places to have this work through and the covid quarantine could get any squad. The potential for significant illness in 34 and under is vastly vastly vastly vastly less than the flu in any given year. I am just glad that some how some way the powers at be decided to have the guts to actually follow some of the science/facts instead of being too political. To the folks who are offended by this interpretation of facts I am glad you are not in charge of my practice because if you did not kill them all you at least have all of them on so many psychological drugs they would not be able to function. My evaluation of numbers was never political and I would never risk any patient based on politics but I am not sure of many politicians these days. Thank the Lord for the ALMOST NOT TOTAL elimination of kids having problems with this disease. The flip side of that in our 75 and up population has been significantly consequential and I am deeply saddened at that fact as well. College football can and is being played safely and I for one am extremely happy
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Post by cornhole on Sept 6, 2020 17:38:12 GMT -6
Guys there is a really good chance that we will have football this fall. There are some IgG positive folks without IgM (which means its an older infection) in Jackson County Florida. These are the reliable tests too. I am attaching some numbers I was working to actually give risks per age group using New York, Dougherty County Georgia, and Dade County Florida as three hot to hotter spots. If anyone is interested they can open those and read them. Long and short is that with a reasonable testing for antibodies and Covid beginning June 15th (of reliable tests) then a protocol could be established for when players were able to participate. We will have signs at games that say something like this: If you have tested Positive for antibodies and are negative for active disease you may openly attend the game. If you are currently positive for Covid we ask that you do not attend. The CDC has determined that Covid-19 may in fact lead to serious illness or death. If you have any questions please contact your health care provider for their assessment of your individual risk. Then of course that would only go if there is liability protection granted to universities following a protocol and warning.. Good news we live in the South likely will pass state legislators in our states. . This is a post From early May. I am still obsessed with the numbers and our Dougherty County after the first surge resurged slightly but predominantly in their Caucasian population in July as the rest of the county was re-fed from Florida etc. Over the past week they are down to less than 5 cases per hundred thousand a day. That’s good. New York is even less than that. Over the next month as school settled in we will see what happens but I am encouraged that by the end of the season we may be able to see larger amounts of people allowed into stadiums. It was good to see college football take off and I am happy that my Sept 1 prediction was pretty accurate. There are still places to have this work through and the covid quarantine could get any squad. The potential for significant illness in 34 and under is vastly vastly vastly vastly less than the flu in any given year. I am just glad that some how some way the powers at be decided to have the guts to actually follow some of the science/facts instead of being too political. To the folks who are offended by this interpretation of facts I am glad you are not in charge of my practice because if you did not kill them all you at least have all of them on so many psychological drugs they would not be able to function. My evaluation of numbers was never political and I would never risk any patient based on politics but I am not sure of many politicians these days. Thank the Lord for the ALMOST NOT TOTAL elimination of kids having problems with this disease. The flip side of that in our 75 and up population has been significantly consequential and I am deeply saddened at that fact as well. College football can and is being played safely and I for one am extremely happy Please contact Dr. Fauci (the darling of the media) and advise that plucky blast tard the "burn" is a scientific fact.
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Post by buzzlightyear on Sept 6, 2020 18:56:25 GMT -6
I was not pleased with everything Fauci was saying but I quit listening to him AT ALL when he said New York handled it right about 6 weeks ago. Numbers don’t lie and for months I knew New York was lying about their nursing home numbers. I actually did not think money and fame could corrupt a true scientist but I AM WRONG. His claim New York had done it right was trash, a lie and a a completely obliterated any credence of his credentials reputation and or expertise. He is scum as far as I am concerned and should lose any position of authority.
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